This week’s and next week’s predictions

The method

This page is the method. It explains how the model's forecasts are made, for a free game of skill and prediction. Nothing here is an offer or advice to act on: this site takes no money, accepts no wager, and every forecast it shows is model output.

• Forty thousand finals are simulated for every game. The predicted margin is the line that splits them down the middle; the win chance is how often each side came out ahead. The board covers this week and next, for everybody. Games further out are simulated too, at 4,000 finals, and their lines and picks open on the Thursday their week comes up; Supporters can read ahead in Season Outlook (free for everyone this season). What you see is the arithmetic, not a picture of it.
• A score is real only where its source is named beside it. Most fixtures are the state’s schedule; some are generated placeholders until the real game is on file, and those never carry a score.
• Confidence is measured in units, a score, not money. Nothing on this site accepts payment, and nothing here can be cashed out.

Read the arithmetic, step by step